Single Store Owner

JAN-FEB 2016

Issue link:

Contents of this Issue


Page 23 of 95

22 / Convenience Store News for the Single Store Owner / JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2016 COVER STORY As in past years, our exclusive study provides dollar and unit volume projections in key c-store product categories based on data from various sources, including Nielsen for category sales history; TDLinx for store counts; and government sources for motor fuel volume and pricing data. The data is then run through a sophisticated projection model and presented here in summary form. Consulting economist Maureen Maguire, founder and CEO of New York-based ThinkResearch, oversees the Fore- cast Study process. We've also brought back our second-annual Retailer Forecast Study. The survey, fielded in November, asked single-store retailers to predict results for their average store sales this year in major categories and to provide reasoning for their answers. They were also asked to rate issues that are expected to have a major impact on the industry, and share initiatives they intend to implement during the year to increase sales and profitability. MOTOR FUELS There's no question, falling gas prices are the big- gest story when comparing 2015 to 2014. Last year, the average retail price per gallon dropped by an estimated 94 cents to $2.50. The average retail price per gallon is expected to slip even more in 2016 to a forecasted $2.46. Diesel prices plummeted even more last year, de- clining an estimated $1.21 per gallon to $2.72. Diesel prices are forecast to rebound in 2016, but only to the tune of 4 cents per gallon to $2.76. As is to be expected, falling gas prices are lead- ing to higher fuel sales in terms of gallons sold, but lower sales in terms of fuel dollars. The low prices are also driving stronger fuel margins and putting more discretionary income in consumers' pockets, helping to boost in-store sales, as can be seen elsewhere in the Single Store Owner Forecast Study. Despite the positives, single-store owners are, for the most part, on the fence regarding whether their fuel sales will be better in 2016. More than half of those surveyed (54.5 percent) expect fuel sales to stay the same year over year. At the same time, 27.3 percent of respondents expect their fuel sales to increase this year, while only 18.2 percent expect sales to decrease. These figures vary significantly from c-store chain retailers. Among chains, 65 percent of operators expect their fuel sales to increase this year compared to 2015. Thirty percent predict fuel sales will stay the same, while just 5 percent expect declining sales. Fuel prices, credit card fees and the unemploy- ment rate were cited by single-store operators as Industry Forecast: Motor Fuels 2014 2015 2016 acTUal ESTimaTED FOREcaST Average retail price per gallon 1 $3.56 $2.57* $2.55* Gasoline (all grades) $3.44 $2.50* $2.46* Diesel $3.93 $2.72* $2.76* National billions of gallons 182.9 186.7* 187.3* C-store billions of gallons 148.3 151.4 151.9 National sales of gasoline ($ billions) $650.5 $479.8 $477.6 C-store sales of gasoline ($ billions) $527.5 $389.1 $387.3 1 Weighted average price of all grades and diesel fuel *Prediction from EIA/Department of Energy, Short-Term Outlook, October 2015 Source: EIA/Department of Energy; Convenience Store News Industry Forecast Study, 2016 Industry Forecast: Cigarettes (% change) 2014 2015 2016 Unit volume per store -3.1% 0.7% 0.3% Industry unit volume -1.9% 1.5% 1.2% Source: Convenience Store News Industry Forecast Study, 2016 2014 figures are actual; 2015 are estimated based on nine months; 2016 are forecast. Retailer Forecast: Motor Fuels Sales will increase Sales will decrease Net change: 3.5% Sales will stay the same 27.3% 18.2% 54.5% Source: Single Store Owner Retailer Forecast Study, 2016 Retailer Forecast: Cigarettes Volume will increase Volume will decrease Net change: 3.0% Volume will stay the same 36.4% 45.5% 18.1% Source: Single Store Owner Retailer Forecast Study, 2016

Articles in this issue

Archives of this issue

view archives of Single Store Owner - JAN-FEB 2016