Convenience Store News

JAN 2017

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46 Convenience Store News | JANUARY 2017 | WWW.CSNEWS.COM Business Forecast outlook in last year's Forecast Study. Heading into 2017, 73.5 percent of retailers polled believe their foodservice sales — which include prepared food and hot, cold and frozen dispensed beverages — will increase in the next year. This compares to 82.4 industry dollar sales for 2015 increased 7.7 percent, followed by an estimated 6 percent in 2016. This met- ric is forecasted to rise 6.8 percent in 2017. As for per-store dollar sales, OTP saw a 2015 increase of 6.8 percent. Its 2016 performance is esti- mated to be up 5.3 percent, with a 6.1-percent increase forecasted for 2017. The stats for unit volume per store are similar. The 2015 increase was 6.8 percent and 2016's estimated growth is 5.2 percent. The forecast for 2017 calls for a 3.8-percent increase. Retailers' outlook is on par with the forecast: 48.6 percent say their sales per store for OTP will increase, 14.3 percent say sales will decrease, and 37.1 percent say they will stay the same. One retailer told CSNews there is "not much in [OTP] sales worth noting." On the other end of the backbar is the electronic cigarette segment. In 2015, industry dollar sales rose 5.2 percent, dollar sales per store rose 4.3 percent, and unit volume per store rose by a whopping 33.3 per- cent — a possible result of lower pricing and supplier consolidation. 2016 estimates are noticeably lower: increases of 1.2 percent in industry dollar sales, 0.5 percent in dollar sales per store, and 5.1 percent in unit volume per store. The forecast for 2017 is gloomier, too. Industry dol- lar sales for the segment are forecasted to decrease 5.5 percent this year, dollar sales per store are forecasted to decrease 6.2 percent, and unit volume per store is forecasted to dip 0.1 percent. FOODSERVICE Is the foodservice category cooling off a bit? It would appear so based on the fewer number of convenience store retailers who expect their foodservice sales to increase in 2017, vs. the number who held a positive Industry Forecast: Electronic Cigarettes (% change) 2017 2016 2015 Retailer Forecast: Foodservice Retailer Forecast: Packaged Beverages 73.5% 70.6% 23.5% 26.5% 3.0% 2.9% Source: Convenience Store News Market Research, 2017 Source: Convenience Store News Market Research, 2017 Net change: 6.8% Net change: 3.3% 2017 sales per store will: 2017 sales per store will: Increase Increase Decrease Decrease Stay the same Stay the same Industry Dollar Sales Dollar Sales per Store Unit Volume per Store 2015 figures are actual; 2016 are estimated based on nine months; 2017 are forecasted Source: Convenience Store News Market Research, 2017 -5.5% -6.2% -0.1% 1.2% 4.3% 0.5% 5.1% 33.3% 5.2% 2017 2016 2015 Industry Forecast: Packaged Beverages (% change) Industry Dollar Sales Dollar Sales per Store Unit Volume per Store 2015 figures are actual; 2016 are estimated based on nine months; 2017 are forecasted Source: Convenience Store News Market Research, 2017 4.1% 4.5% 5.2% 2.2% 3.5% 4.2% 3.1% 6.7% 7.6%

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