Convenience Store News

JAN 2017

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52 Convenience Store News | JANUARY 2017 | WWW.CSNEWS.COM Business Forecast c-store customers. That being said, all signs are pointing to a flattening of the edible grocery category in 2017 when it comes to three major stats: industry dollar sales, dollar sales per store, and unit volume per store. The predictions for 2017 call for a slow- down, with industry dollar sales forecasted to be flat (up a negligible 0.1 percent) and dollar sales per store declining slightly by 0.6 percent. Unit volume per store could dip 0.8 percent, according to CSNews projections. Retailers' expectations are in line with the forecast. The majority of retailers surveyed expect edible grocery to run even in 2017 — 57.6 percent predict their edible grocery sales per store will stay the same for the year vs. 33.3 percent who think their sales will increase. Conversely, 9.1 percent of retailers expect their sales of edible grocery to fall. According to one respondent, it "cannot compete because of the limited space available for these types of items." Methodology Convenience Store News partnered with ThinkResearch to produce the 15th annual Industry Forecast Study. The forecast models are developed by looking at past monthly sales and unit performance, along with outside economic factors such as disposable income, employment, etc. Final models are selected for each category and then aggregated to obtain total industry and per-store figures for dollar sales and unit volume. The Nielsen Co. provided sales and unit data for convenience, as well as for total food, drug and mass for in-store categories. Nielsen TDLinx provided monthly store counts, which were used to forecast the annual average number of stores. The forecast shows an increase of 0.7 percent in store count for both 2016 and 2017. Government data sources include the Department of Energy for gasoline price and volume; the Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts for data on disposable income; and the Bureau of Labor Statistics for unemployment rates and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The Retailer Forecast and Supplier Forecast are based on the results of a survey fielded in November 2016. Retailers, wholesalers and sup- pliers were asked to predict 2017 sales per store for a variety of cat- egories, as well as to share their opinions on overall business and eco- nomic trends. A total of 152 responses are included in these results. Retailer Forecast: Salty Snacks Retailer Forecast: Edible Grocery 73.5% 33.3% 9.1% 26.5% 57.6% Source: Convenience Store News Market Research, 2017 Source: Convenience Store News Market Research, 2017 Net change: 4.2% Net change: 2.2% 2017 sales per store will: 2017 sales per store will: Increase Increase Decrease Decrease Stay the same Stay the same 2017 2016 2015 Industry Forecast: Salty Snacks (% change) Industry Dollar Sales Dollar Sales per Store Unit Volume per Store 2015 figures are actual; 2016 are estimated based on nine months; 2017 are forecasted Source: Convenience Store News Market Research, 2017 2.8% 5.0% 5.7% 2.0% 3.7% 4.3% 3.1% 5.5% 6.4% Industry Forecast: Edible Grocery (% change) 2017 2016 2015 Industry Dollar Sales Dollar Sales per Store Unit Volume per Store 2015 figures are actual; 2016 are estimated based on nine months; 2017 are forecasted Source: Convenience Store News Market Research, 2017 4.7% -0.8% -0.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.1% 4.9% 5.6%

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